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14 March 2007
Alternatives facing Pervez Musharraf

M V KAMATH

        The first thing that Pakistanis must remember is that it was not the Indians who called for the division of the country. Indeed Mahatma Gandhi was totally opposed to the very concept. He was even ready to let Mohammad Ali Jinnah be the first Prime Minister of an undivided India. It was Jinnah and his elite-dominated Muslim League that demanded a separate Muslim State.

        Right from the start it was Pakistan which started creating trouble, especially in Jammu and Kashmir on the issue of its affiliation. It was Sheikh Abdullah who opted for a secular India. Almost from day one Pakistan has been trying to break up India. The hatred of the Pakistani upper classes towards Hindus kept increasing by the years. Pakistan Army's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) swore to destroy India through a thousand cuts. Pakistan fought three major wars. It was willing to lick American boots to best India militarily and did what Washington dictated. It got Pakistan nowhere.

        The last bit of wholesome treachery Pakistan indulged in was Kargil. There again, it failed miserably. It should have known that not a thousand, not even a million million cuts will break up India because culturally it is one unit. At America's instance - and insistence - Pakistan went out of its way to support Islamic fundamentalists, the al Qaeda and the Taliban to squeeze the Soviet presence out of Afghanistan.

        The Pakistan-American strategy, of course, worked but it is now turning out to be a menace to Pakistan itself. Islamabad is now paying for its folly. The fundamentalists are turning against their own government and Musharraf has been forced to make peace with tribals in neighbouring Waziristan. A 'terrorist index' jointly developed by the US Centre for American Progress and the Carnegie Institute-backed Foreign Policy journal has rated Pakistan as the country most likely to become the next al Qaeda stronghold after Somalia. As many as 91 per cent of the over 100 foreign policy experts surveyed for the study were emphatic that Washington must 'dramatically' increase the pressure on Islamabad to confront militants in the tribal areas. Another disconcerting finding for Islamabad in the study is that 44 per cent of the experts believe that Pakistan is likely to transfer nuclear technology to terrorists over the next three to four years - the very 'terrorists' that the US once shamelessly supported. More and more the Americans are coming to believe that Musharraf is becoming worse and worse as a dictator - again, the very Musharraf whose dictatorship they once wholeheartedly supported, only that now, the chicken are coming home to roost. Kowtowing to the United States may have helped Pakistan in the early years, but now they are beginning to pay for that folly. The Americans are now saying that Pakistan is hosting al Qaeda quite openly. Washington has nothing but contempt for Islamabad and does not hesitate to send missiles across Pakistan territory to attack what are supposed to be al Qaeda hangouts. The missiles are directed at the targets from US ships based in the Indian Ocean. Matters have turned to such an extent that Musharraf is considering the option of imposing Emergency to tide over the security and political problems that seem to have engulfed his country.

        In August last year he had placed Hafiz Mohammad Saed, founder of the Lashkar-e-Toiba and leader of the Jamaat-ud-Dawa under house arrest. It doesn't seem to have helped Musharraf to any great extent. It is now being freely stated that it was the LeT that was responsible for the bombing of Samjhauta Express.

        There are small sectarian units in Pakistan which do not want to have peace with India and are showing it through violent ways in Pakistan itself. As recently as 15 January, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa had organised a national consultative conference to formulate an Islamist response to the ongoing peace process between

        India and Pakistan. The Jamaat is hell-bent on disrupting the peace process between the two neighbouring countries.

        So what is the answer? In the first place Musharraf must assert that after 60 years of meaningless efforts at fighting against a superior India, it is time to make peace with Delhi. Musharraf seems to have understood that. In a statement following the Samjhauta Express tragedy he said that 'We will not allow elements which want to sabotage the ongoing peace process to succeed in their nefarious designs.'

        Much the same thought was expressed by Pakistan Prime Minister Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri, who kept his word to travel to New Delhi for talks with his Indian counterpart, despite the wide publicity given to the Samjhauta Express disaster. A point needs to be made here. And it is that, the Jamaat-ud-Dawa notwithstanding, the people of Pakistan are tired and want to live in peace with India. The same can be said of the Indian people as well. Therefore, the peace process must go forward with unrelenting vigour. The ultimate aim should be to reduce tensions and for the two countries to enter into a confederation and to swear never to fight each other again or let other countries make use of them for their own nefarious purposes.

        In other words, both India and Pakistan must tell the United States, Russia and China, that in future there will be one confederation, one foreign policy and one unassailable unity. The results would be heavenly. Both countries will then need to spend less on defence and more on primary education, health and welfare and employment-oriented industries, etc. An Indo-Pak Confederation will become a super power in its own right sooner than anyone thinks.

        Trade and commerce between them will increase ten-fold. As Graeme Wheeler, managing director of the World Bank, put it in his valedictory address to the second SAARC Business Leaders' Conclave held in Mumbai on 18 February, trade between India and Pakistan could rise to over $9 billion over the next five years from the current $1 billion, if barriers relating to policies, infrastructure, corruption and red tape are eliminated. Pakistan and India must depend upon each other in every field, from trade and commerce, education, defence, nuclear armaments and inter-State security and keep away all outsiders howsoever powerful who have their own agenda.

        Pakistan will remain Pakistan but when India and Pakistan cooperate in a spirit of mutual adjustment and cooperation, they will have the world at their feet. No nation will dare to take them on and the self-respect of both countries will be greatly enhanced. South Asia will then emerge as a true super power. Hatred must cease; cooperation should become the watchword. Free travel between the two countries must become a reality as now it is among member nations of the European Union. This is what the people want and this is what they should get. India and Pakistan have wasted 60 years in needless feuding. We were both caught in history's warp. We went into the self-destructive mode. The Samjhauta Express tragedy must be made the turning point in Indo-Pakistan relations. Opened should be a new and bright we chapter for the good of both. The Pakistan government's involvement in the renovation of Hindu temples at Katas (also known as Kata Raj) sends out a positive signal. Pakistan is pouring in millions of rupees in the conservation, restoration and renovation of Katas. The spirit behind it must be appreciated - and in many ways reciprocated. The future is beckoning. India must take this change of heart in Pakistan seriously and be thankful for its own sake and for the peace and prosperity of South Asia.


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