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M V Kamath
Commenting on Sino-Indian relations in a recent issue, The Economist (3 November) wrote that India and China are not friends and that following the lost war with China in 1962 India still sees its 'huge neighbour' as a strategic threat. It may not have been aware of a statement made on 13th June this year by India's then Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee after a visit to China that the letter is interested in building good relations with India and that 'neither do we consider them a threat to us nor do they consider us a threat to them' and that there is enough space for both countries to grow in their own areas.
It is significant that that particular point was stressed by both President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh in almost identical words when, after a long discussion, a Joint Declaration was made in Delhi. Consider what the Declaration said: 'Both sides hold the view that there exist bright prospects for their common development, that they are not rivals or competitors but are partners for mutual benefit' and that, furthermore 'they agree that there is enough space for them to grow together and play their respective roles in the region and beyond, while remaining sensitive to each other's concerns and aspirations'.
The two leaders signed thirteen accords which by itself is something of an achievement. Importantly, both sides agree to promote cooperation in the field of nuclear energy - the first time they have done so-consistent with their international commitments, noting that 'international civilian nuclear cooperation' should be advanced through innovative and forward-looking approaches while safeguarding the effectiveness of global non-proliferation principles.
George Bush could not have expressed the same thought more eloquently. Attention needs to be drawn to the words 'sensitivity towards each other's concerns'. India is naturally concerned about China's relations with Pakistan. China, in turn, can be concerned about India's growing strategic talks with the US and Prime Minister Singh's forthcoming visit to Japan to discuss security problems. India is further concerned about China casting a covetous eye on Arunachal Pradesh, especially in the context of a rather provocation statement made on the issue by the Chinese Ambassador in Delhi, in the course of a TV interview, that that part of India belongs to China. Perhaps it was deliberately made to see how India would react.
The reaction on India's part was strong enough to convey to Beijing that Delhi did not appreciate the Ambassador's remarks. Ergo, the Joint Declaration speaks softly of the likelihood of an early settlement of the boundary question which will advance the 'basic interests' of the two countries to be pursued as a 'strategic objective'. China obviously, or seemingly seems to be in a hurry to finalise 'an appropriate framework' for a 'final package settlement' at 'an early date'. That should suit Delhi. One belief is that there may be a territorial 'swap' involving Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh with India conceding the former to China and the latter obliging Delhi over Arunachal Pradesh. After all, China has already conceded India's right over Sikkim without too much fuss made over it.
It is not unusual for one country in dispute with another to settle matters quid pro quo. Whatever might have been said by the Chinese Ambassador, one doesn't notice any acidity in President Hu's remarks. China wouldn't have aspired to increase its bilateral trade with India to $40 billion by 2010 - that is, within the next three years - if, simultaneously it seeks to offend India's security sensibilities. Even in the matter of Sino-Pakistan relations, if Prof Hu Shisheng, Director of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) is to be believed, China's relationship with Pakistan is no longer that of a 'military ally' but is 'a normal one in a post-Cold War scenario'. To that one must add the view of Ma Jiali, also of CICIR, that Beijing had de-linked its relationship with India and Pakistan and while China is keeping its ties with Pakistan, it is upgrading its ties with India. Believable.
According to another Chinese scholar, Rong Ying, China's close ties to Pakistan are not directed towards India but towards ensuring the security of China's western borders - a rather far-fetched excuse. What is more relevant is his pointed reference to the fact that while President Hu's visit to India breaks with accepted practice in China in that it is the second top level visit to India without a reciprocal visit from either India's Prime Minister or President.
A point worth taking note of by Delhi. Obviously the Chinese are very sensitive in such matters and while Rong may not necessarily reflect the Chinese Government's view, it nevertheless has to be given serious consideration. In the field of trade and commerce, yes, India is overcautious. China wants a fair deal. Presently India has saddled itself with some ad hoc controls that irritate China which wants to invest in India but is getting the cold shoulder mainly for security reasons.
Thus, three foreign port operators including the Hong Kong based Hutchison Port Holdings have been banned from terdering big container port projects. Huawei Technologies employing 1,150 Indian engineers and 50 Chinese in Bangalore, has had its telecommunications equipment contracts blocked - again for security reasons. Indeed, in 2001 it had been accused of working for Pakistan. But China still seems anxious to maintain happy relationships with India.
President Hu was aggressively friendly while India is cautiously so. Hu can afford to be aggressive considering that China now has a foreign exchange reserve of $1 trillion, more than one fifth of global reserves. India is doing well, but nowhere near China. Hu speaks of Panchsheel, that China and India are 'true friends', no rivals but partners and even on the nuclear issue doesn't have too many reservations. Perhaps India must give up its hesitancy. Perhaps.
What is obvious, meanwhile, is that the old mindsets are slowly changing and India, compelled to face a whole lot of complex factors, is trying hard to resolve them. It won't be easy to revert to the old 'Bhai-bhai' relationship, but it has no other option but to try. With Khina offering its hand of friendship unreservedly, can India continue to sulk and turn inwards in desperation?
The Sino-Indian Wheel of
Friendship is inevitably turning - it has to, given the times - but it
is turning slowly and one can only hope steadily as well. One can fight
a neighbour - but one can't fight Time. It enforces its own compulsions
that it would be foolish to ignore.