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Bulls and balls

        It is doubly appropriate that on a day when Yuvraj Singh broke a historical barrier in cricket the Sensex should also breach a new psychological high, recording its biggest rise ever. Six sixers in an over and 16,000 on the Sensex are both memorable milestones. Both, in a sense, represent the march of new India, the throb of a vibrant nation. Alas, both can be fleeting. But at the moment, the flow of euphoria and excitement is unmistakable. The sensex burst through the 16000-barrier after the Bernanke-headed US Federal Reserve cut a key benchmark interest rate. The rise is important, for it negates all the political problems created by the filibustering Left parties. Though it is too early to talk of economy maturely tiding over politics, the signs are certainly propitious. One day we will come of age.

        The rise beyond the 16K level means another Rs 1,53,002 crore of notional wealth has been created. The markets are now hoping that the rate cut in the US would lead to trimming of loans and ignite a wave of consumer buying in India too. There is also an anticipation that foreign investors would shovel more cash into emerging markets like India and that industry would grow at a robust pace after the slight stutter in August. These are natural expectations. But it is also wise to slightly temper the hopes. Bankers have already made it clear that the home loan rates aren't going to come down in a jiffy. The RBI will not jump the gun, and will only follow a wait-and-watch policy.

        Foreign institutional investors have pumped in $9.46 billion into Indian equities this year and the bet is that they will put in more cash now when emerging markets promise better returns. But the same foreign institutional investors pulled about $2 billion out of the Indian market between 25 July and 21 August. This clearly points to the fact that FIIs can at best be mere fair-weather friends, and the intrinsic health of Sensex and thereof, cannot be linked to them. Elsewhere, the strengthening of the rupee against the dollar has hit the profitability of exporters, particularly the IT companies. The industrial growth data show a definite slowdown threat and oil prices are being artificially kept low through an administered mechanism. These are certainly matters of concern and underline the fact that managing the economy is a long-drawn Test match-like affair. Twenty20 can provide the slap and dash. Sensex (read stock market), in that sense, can provide slap and dash. While we can certainly celebrate it, we cannot, however, hold on to it as a finite truth.


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